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 2002.06.14 THE HOUSE THAT ANTONIN BUILT
I say enough. Enough is what I say. It's time to step away from the propaganda and really examine the state of affairs. It's time to understand that, with over two years to go until the 2004 election, the Bush White House is imploding. Let's take a look at the players in this drama. George Bush: approval ratings don't last when they're caused by events outside the President's control and they don't translate to votes. Bill Clinton left office with an approval rating in the high 60's but I doubt you'll find any political analyst who'd say he would've gotten 67% of the national vote in 2000. The gild is off the anti-terrorism lily and the mainstream media, to whatever extent it's willing to push things, is no longer willing to give him a pass. He's still unintelligent, he's still clearly being directed from behind the scenes. Moreover, every investigation into the attacks is going to hurt him, which is why the White House is pushing to keep things behind closed doors. Dick Cheney: if his wobbly heart doesn't get him out of office early, the investigation into his years at Halliburton will. The Administration's mantra on Enron was "They got in trouble and we refused to give them quid pro quo" but that's not going to work when one of their people is in the hot seat. I'd give 3-1 odds that he's not on the ticket in two years, though, so he doesn't much matter. John Ashcroft: lost an election to a corpse. Always remember that. John Ashcroft lost an election to a dead man. Furthermore, he believes calico cats are the agents of Satan and he blew $8,000 in taxpayer money to cover a nude statue in the Justice Department Building. He makes Jerry Falwell look like a nice, rational guy. And now he's being forced to fall on a grenade by the White House; his claims about the would-be "dirty bomber" apparently so far exceeded the grasp of reality that Ari Fleischer had to step in and publicly call him on the carpet. Ashcroft is an albatross. Getting rid of him will piss off the radical right but not enough to be of concern. Ari Fleischer: the press is stupid but not stupid enough to fall for Ari's sleight-of-hand for a full term. Eventually they're going to remember that when they get nothing from him they can go elsewhere. When they do, the White House will have to move but until then they stay put. Colin Powell: the Administration needs Powell way more than Powell needs the Administration. Not only would losing him mean losing tons of moderate voters, with one phone call Powell could kill Bush's re-election chances by enlisting John McCain to run with him on a third party ticket. They wouldn't win either but they'd take probably 40% of Bush's votes and maybe 25% from the Democrats, shifting the White House and landing the sitting President a third place finish. As badly as history will view Bush's winning the election by a 5-4 vote of the Supreme Court, it's nothing compared to that scenario. Powell will continue acting as a free agent and the White House will continue trying to convince the public that the Administration is in no way divided when he goes diametrically against policy. Donald Rumsfeld: is insane. Everyone's seen him trying to use his special powers, everyone's heard him answering questions that are obviously unrelated to what he was really asked. As Americans slowly come to the realization that we're not really at war, they'll begin to get worried by this. Andrew Card: is getting played by Bush's good ol' boy network. With Karen Hughes gone he seems to be ceding power to Karl Rove. He's concerned about Bush losing confidence in his staff and with good reason -- fear of Hughes is what kept everybody in line before. Now it's Rove's fiefdom to play with and they all know it. Tom Ridge: hasn't been heard from since unveiled his ridiculous color-coded alert scheme (As an aside, you want to know how many color changes we've gone through during this year's many Brooklyn Bridge warnings? None.) His lack of visibility either means he knows he has no shot at getting the VP slot he lost out on in 2000 so he's basically packed it in or he's already been promised the slot so he's no longer actively working for it. Doesn't matter either way, he's a stuffed shirt who's now had too much publicity to pretend otherwise. Rudy Giuliani: he's been pushed lately by pessimistic Democrats as the VP candidate who can't be beaten. Please. Giuliani's not stupid; he knows a general election brings into play his first seven years and nine months as Mayor. He doesn't need that, especially when there are Cabinet positions available for the asking. The rest of the GOP: during a debate on hate crime legislation last week, Trent Lott said the only hate crimes the Senate should be concerned are the hate crimes of terrorism. I suspect he's just still pissy about having to change the sign on his office door to "Minority Leader" because the Party's power play with the White House is now back in effect. Republicans in Congress have shown little willingness lately to give Bush a free ride on issues such as Enron/Andersen and the various damning FBI memos. This is the unstoppable dream team? Yeah, I'm all a-flutter. I believed it a year ago and I believe it now: Al Gore is going to stroll into the White House in January 2005. Aaron Veenstra is the managing editor of Etc. House Productions. |
