I just realized, reading this post by Josh Marshall, what I'm dreading.

Gallup's latest poll shows George Bush at 50% of "likely" voters; his job approval is at 51%. It should be noted that Gallup has been something of a pro-Bush outlier this year, but let's stipulate that it's legit enough. A significant portion of the "swing" voter category has swung against Bush. I say "against Bush" and not "for Kerry" because an election with an incumbent is necessarily a referendum on that incumbent. Voters in the middle are much more likely to vote for Kerry based on displeasure with Bush than on admiration for Kerry. For whatever reason, a bunch of them think that Bush is screwing up right now. And when I say "right now," I mean right now, as in, Iraq is a shithole at this very moment, and millions of people are living hand to mouth today.

"Right now" is elastic, but it's not indefinite, and I'm concerned the voting populace is not interested in holding Bush accountable for his past performance if things turn around on any major issue or issues. If, for example, a foreign policy solution is found to the conundrum Marshall cites, notably lowering American casualties before the election, will voters let Bush off the hook for his incompetent performance throughout the recent past? What if that solution is substantively similar to a Kerry proposal?

We keep hearing that a six-figure troop requirement must be met in Iraq for the foreseeable future; I don't buy that. Given the rumbling about Iran lately, I can see a large-scale withdrawal that would allow us to focus on Iran in the context of a foreign threat to Iraq, leaving the internal policing to Iraqi forces. The insurgencies would probably heighten under that scenario, but we would appear to be giving Iraq some real sovereignty at the same time that we would be taking our soldiers somewhat out of harm's way. Maybe that's this year's October Surprise -- a little 24th anniversary trip back to Iran. "Our intelligence indicates that Iran poses a grave and gathering threat to the democracy and freedom of Iraq."

Whatever happens in the next 90 days, whatever corners it appears we've turned, the last three and a half years are still his fault. Don't believe his lies.