THE SPREAD.
OK, we're two and a half days away from the polls being closed, so it's time to talk predictions. Firstly, the Presidential race.
Electoral College
Kerry/Edwards: 313 (All the Gore states plus FL, OH, CO and NH)
Bush/Cheney: 224 (All the other states)
Other: 1 (A Republican elector from WV has said he won't vote for Bush)
* Colorado's ballot initiative to proportionally divvy up its electoral votes will fail, giving all nine to Kerry/Edwards.

Popular Vote
Kerry/Edwards: 51%
Bush/Cheney: 47.5%
Other: 1.5% (Less than 1% for Nader, about 0.5% for Badnarik)
Total turnout: 120,000,000

Perhaps most importantly, I predict that the media will collectively call the election on November 2 (or very, very early on November 3) for the man who will eventually be sworn in on January 20. There will be no protracted legal battle.

And some general thoughts on the next Congress:

109th Congress - Senate
Democrats: 51 (pick-ups in IL, CO, OK, KY and AK)
Republicans: 48 (pick-ups in GA, SC)
Other: 1 (Jim Jeffords (I-VT) caucuses with the Democrats)
* If John Kerry becomes president, MA will hold a special election to replace him in the Senate. Ties in the Senate are broken by the sitting Vice-President, as President of the Senate

109th Congress - House of Representatives
Democrats: 209
Republicans: 225
Other: 1 (Bernie Sanders (I-VT) caucuses with the Democrats)
* Unlike the other categories, I didn't put much thought into the House predictions, simply because it's impossible for an amateur observer to have a good sense of how these many, disparate races are going to pan out. The four pick-ups I predict for the Democrats are based on a general sense of how the entire country views the two parties at the moment.

Because of Louisiana's strange primary system, we probably won't know the final numbers for the 109th Congress on November 2. In LA, an open primary is held on general election day. If a candidate gets 50% or better, he or she is declared the winner; if not, the top two finishers enter a run-off election on December 4. This likely will not affect the power balance in the House, but could conceivably decide into whose hands the Senate will fall.

Your thoughts?

Posted by Aaron S. Veenstra ::: 2004:10:30:16:59