This month's Daily Kos straw poll is happening today, and as it stands Chris Dodd is up to 21% from 7% in September, running second to John Edwards at 31%. His gains appear to have come largely at the expense of Edwards (down 8%) and Barack Obama (down 5%), and are almost certainly reflective of fundraising gains as well -- I threw him another $25 at our last wireless sit-down in Vancouver. This isn't a particularly surprising result, and it's a welcome one; Dodd's the only candidate that's actually strongly pushing for the agenda that the Democrats ran on last fall, and he's in a position to do something about it as a sitting Senator.
Perhaps not coincidentally, approval polls for Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have also been posted today at DKos -- they're at 12% and 10%, respectively.
Posted by Aaron S. Veenstra ::: 2007:10:22:14:41
If this is representative of what's out there, why is everyone talking about Hillary's pending coronation as the Democratic nominee?
It's not at all representative of what's out there. The telecom immunity stuff won't be reflected until currently-in-field polls come out, but Dodd's been consistently at 1-2% in the real world. The netroots have been behind Edwards to a great extent, and he's running third where it counts; Richardson's online spike wasn't enough to get him out of fourth. But I think all of the campaigns understand that, even though a lot of people claim to be "paying attention" to the race, there are still a lot of low-information voters out there, and that things are likely to come down to Hillary and Not-Hillary. Obama's gambit is to become the Not-Hillary and hope her coalition is 49% or less of the party; for Edwards, it's to win Iowa and use it as a springboard the way Kerry did. For everybody else, they've got to differentiate themselves and find a constituency to activate. I think Dodd came to understand the netroots during the 2006 Lamont/Lieberman race, and he's betting that pushing a strong liberal Democratic agenda is his way in.
Ah, I can't wait for the Dodd-Huckabee General Election. "Fulfilling the Other Party's Stereotypes since 2007."
I agree on your analysis, and just wish Obama had the idea to, er, "lead," before Dodd did. Not that I think Dodd wouldn't be a fine president, but the calculating bastard in me says America really isn't clamouring for another New England liberal on the ballot.
I really don't understand Hillary's strength, or Obama and Edwards' sloth. I naively thought 2008 would be an election of ideas -- where voters would be attracted to a candidate (even a New England liberal) with passion for, and solution to, an issue. Any major issue would do -- and would triumph over image. Me stupid.
Perhaps the prospect of Fred Thompson in the oval office will convince Al Gore to take another chance -- he's even gotten some grudging respect from Republicans.